隨著焊管價格的下跌，焊管廠噸鋼虧損近300元，目前的焊管價格接近焊管廠的現金成本。實際上在焊管價格持續下跌過程中，由於原料庫存及產成（chéng）品庫存原因，導致焊管廠的虧損遠大於實時測算的生產盈虧。根據曆史數據（jù）的測算，當（dāng）噸鋼虧（kuī）損達到300元/噸時，將使（shǐ）焊管廠的現金收（shōu）入為負，也就是說很快就會出現焊管廠減產。從近期的唐山鋼企高爐（lú）開工率的數據中可以看到，近期，高爐開工率維持在91%附近，遠低於年初的98.65%。事實上，我們統計的焊管企（qǐ）業多為規模較大、相對具有競爭（zhēng）力的焊管廠，而部分小型焊管廠的開工率遠低於此。尤（yóu）其是近期市場資（zī）金較為緊張，已（yǐ）經出現少數焊管廠由於資（zī）金鏈斷裂而倒閉停（tíng）產現象。由（yóu）此看來，未來粗鋼供（gòng）應量有下降趨勢。與此同時，鋼協重點焊管企業庫存也出現下降，4月重點鋼企的焊管庫存為4029萬噸，5月此數據下降為3973萬噸，預計6月重點鋼企焊（hàn）管庫存將下降至3935萬噸（dūn）左右。同期（qī），唐山鋼坯的庫存也出現持續下滑，由高點的197萬噸跌至近期的（de）88萬噸，跌幅達56%。因此，僅從庫存（cún）周期來看，焊管（guǎn）的清庫周期快要結束，焊管價格蓄（xù）勢待漲。
With the decline of welded pipe price, welded pipe factory lost nearly 300 yuan per ton of steel, and the current price of welded pipe is close to the cash cost of welded pipe factory. In fact, during the continuous decline of welded pipe price, due to the stock of raw materials and finished products, the loss of welded pipe factory is much larger than the real-time calculation of production profit and loss. According to the calculation of historical data, when the loss per ton of steel reaches 300 yuan/ton, the cash income of welded pipe plant will be negative, that is to say, the production of welded pipe plant will be reduced soon. From the recent data of blast furnace start-up rate in Tangshan Iron and Steel Company, it can be seen that in the near future, the blast furnace start-up rate maintained near 91%, much lower than the 98.65% at the beginning of the year. In fact, most of our statistical welded pipe enterprises are large-scale and relatively competitive welded pipe factories, while some small welded pipe factories have a much lower start-up rate. Especially in recent years, the market funds are relatively tight, and a few welded pipe factories have been shut down due to the breakage of the capital chain. From this point of view, the future supply of crude steel has a downward trend. At the same time, the inventory of the key welded pipe enterprises of the Steel Association also declined. In April, the inventory of the key steel enterprises was 40.29 million tons. In May, the data fell to 39.73 million tons. It is expected that the inventory of the key steel enterprises will drop to about 39.35 million tons in June. During the same period, Tangshan billet inventory also continued to decline, from 197,000 tons at the peak to 880,000 tons in the near future, a drop of 56%. Therefore, only from the inventory cycle point of view, the cleaning cycle of welded pipe is about to end, and the price of welded pipe is expected to rise.
